Innovative stock market index modeling using exponential regression.

Developed by a

mathematician,

data scientist,

and an

investment professional.

Line graph showing $1,000 invested using the FVel Model, with comparisons to S&P 500 and 3X Leveraged ETF. The FVel Model, represented by a yellow line, significantly outperforms the other two, reaching nearly $25,000, while the S&P 500 and 3X ETF grow less steeply.

*This chart is based on backtested data from 05/22/2015 - 05/09/2025. Past results do not guarantee future performance.

Four people in suits angrily arguing at a news desk, with stock ticker symbols and prices displayed at the bottom.

We don’t like watching TV pundits shout BUY BUY BUY! about a stock, or ramble on about how a sector is valued, with little to no reasoning. We don’t like seeing social media "gurus" pushing stocks with no real analysis. And we especially don’t like watching people lose everything chasing meme coins.

That’s why we set out to build a model that actually indicates when the market is overvalued or undervalued eliminating gut feelings and hype from the equation.

This model won’t make you rich overnight. But neither will the get rich quick gurus, or the latest meme coin.

A black, textured depiction of a human stomach with white powder spilled beneath it.

A grayscale photo of a disposable coffee cup with a lid, casting a shadow on a neutral background.

Subscribe to get access now

$3.45

Every month

✓ Your First Month is Free

✓ Access to the Models

✓ Access to Current Allocations

✓ Access to Blog

For the price of a cup of coffee

What FVEr Does

Fair Value Estimator (FVE): Employs a unique exponential regression based algorithm, built on 20 years of historical market data, to determine fair values for major equity ETFs.
Dynamic "Flip Flop" Strategy: Actively shifts capital between standard and leveraged ETFs based on FVE signals, to produce benchmark outperformance (alpha), and reduce the risk (beta) associated with leveraged ETFs.
Long-Term Leveraged Investing: Leveraged ETFs have been traditionally used for short term trading. FVEr Invest is pioneering a new way for long term investors to use leveraged ETFs in their portfolio. Investors must assess their own risk tolerance before acting.

“Flip Flop” 10 Year Backtest*

ETF Table
      
        
            
            3X Flip Flop
            2X Flip Flop
            3x Leveraged
            2x Leveraged
            Index
          

        
            Broad Market ETFs
          

            SPY
            1421%
            654%
            518%
            413%
            174%
          

            IJH
            2858%
            664%
            54%
            127%
            99%
          

            IJR
            XXX
            351%
            XXX
            77%
            83%
          

            IWM
            624%
            274%
            -30%
            46%
            67%
          

            QQQ
            545%
            534%
            1251%
            931%
            358%
          

            DIA
            1630%
            681%
            357%
            291%
            134%
          

            Sector ETFs
          

            XLV
            652%
            291%
            91%
            111%
            76%
          

            XLU
            XXX
            249%
            XXX
            155%
            81%
          

            XLP
            XXX
            162%
            XXX
            122%
            65%
          

      
    

The 2x Flip Flop and 3x Flip Flop respectively allocate towards:

2x or 3x leveraged ETFs tracking the underlying benchmark index when the trading strategy flashes certain undervalued criteria (around 40% of the time)
1x inverse ETF when the trading strategy flashes certain overvalued criteria (around 10% of the time)
The (un-leveraged) underlying benchmark index when the trading strategy flashes certain neutrally valued criteria (around 50% of the time)

*May 22, 2015 — May 9, 2025

This is backtested data. Past results do not guarantee future performance.

What do you get?

Interactive Valuation Dashboard: The FVEr dashboard provides versatile analytical capabilities, allowing you to perform valuation research on ETFs in the FVEr coverage universe.

A table listing various stock market indices, their valuation ratings, over/undervalued percentages, current prices, fair values, model grades, and volatility ratings, including symbols like IJS, IJR, IJT, IWM, IJH, QQQ, VTI, SCHX, VOO, IWV, IWF, and SPTM.

Screenshot of a financial website displaying ETF analysis for SPY (SPDR S&P 500). It includes sections for ETF type, market, and symbol. A yellow summary box highlights valuation rating of 3.5 stars, undervalued by 3.63%, current value of $540.21, and fair value estimate of $560.55, last updated April 11, 2025. Security performance over different years is shown, with annualized CAGR from 1 to 10 years. Charts display SPY's price trend since 2014, FVE estimates, and residuals analysis for the ETF.

Access to the “Flip Flop” Trading Bot: The “Flip Flop” strategy dynamically allocates capital among a set of market index ETFs, and their leveraged or inverse counterparts.

Table showing various ETFs with their percentage performance, leveraged counterparts, and status. The table is divided into sections for market ETFs and sector ETFs, with headings in yellow and text in black.