Tired of market noise and gut-feel investing? Discover a data-driven approach to truly understand market valuation.

*This chart is based on backtested data from 05/22/2015 - 05/09/2025. Past results do not guarantee future performance.

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FVEr Trading Strategy

10 Year Backtest*

ETF Table
3X FVEr Strategy 2X FVEr Strategy 3x Leveraged 2x Leveraged Index
Broad Market ETFs
SPY 1421% 654% 518% 413% 174%
IJH 2858% 664% 54% 127% 99%
IJR XXX 351% XXX 77% 83%
IWM 624% 274% -30% 46% 67%
QQQ 545% 534% 1251% 931% 358%
DIA 1630% 681% 357% 291% 134%
Sector ETFs
XLV 652% 291% 91% 111% 76%
XLU XXX 249% XXX 155% 81%
XLP XXX 162% XXX 122% 65%

*May 22, 2015 — May 9, 2025

This is backtested data. Past results do not guarantee future performance.

The 2x FVEr Strategy and 3x FVEr Strategy respectively allocate towards:

  • 2x or 3x leveraged ETFs tracking the underlying benchmark index when the trading strategy flashes certain undervalued criteria (around 40% of the time)

  • 1x inverse ETF when the trading strategy flashes certain overvalued criteria (around 10% of the time)

  • The (un-leveraged) underlying benchmark index when the trading strategy flashes certain neutrally valued criteria (around 50% of the time)

Four people in suits angrily arguing at a news desk, with stock ticker symbols and prices displayed at the bottom.

We don’t like watching TV pundits shout BUY BUY BUY! about a stock, or ramble on about how a sector is valued, with little to no reasoning. We don’t like seeing social media "gurus" pushing stocks with no real analysis. And we especially don’t like watching people lose everything chasing meme coins.

That’s why we set out to build a model that actually indicates when the market is overvalued or undervalued eliminating gut feelings and hype from the equation.

This model won’t make you rich overnight. But neither will the get rich quick gurus, or the latest meme coin.

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What FVEr Does

  • Fair Value Estimator (FVE): Employs a unique exponential regression based algorithm, built on 20 years of historical market data, to determine fair values for major equity ETFs.

  • Dynamic FVEr Trading Strategy: Actively shifts capital between standard and leveraged ETFs based on FVE signals, to produce benchmark outperformance (alpha), and reduce the risk (beta) associated with leveraged ETFs.

  • Long-Term Leveraged Investing: Leveraged ETFs have been traditionally used for short term trading. FVEr Invest is pioneering a new way for long term investors to use leveraged ETFs in their portfolio. Investors must assess their own risk tolerance before acting.

What do you get?

Interactive Valuation Dashboard: The FVEr dashboard provides versatile analytical capabilities, allowing you to perform valuation research on ETFs in the FVEr coverage universe.

A table listing various stock market indices, their valuation ratings, over/undervalued percentages, current prices, fair values, model grades, and volatility ratings, including symbols like IJS, IJR, IJT, IWM, IJH, QQQ, VTI, SCHX, VOO, IWV, IWF, and SPTM.
Screenshot of a financial website displaying ETF analysis for SPY (SPDR S&P 500). It includes sections for ETF type, market, and symbol. A yellow summary box highlights valuation rating of 3.5 stars, undervalued by 3.63%, current value of $540.21, and fair value estimate of $560.55, last updated April 11, 2025. Security performance over different years is shown, with annualized CAGR from 1 to 10 years. Charts display SPY's price trend since 2014, FVE estimates, and residuals analysis for the ETF.

Access to the FVEr Trading Bot: The FVEr Trading Strategy dynamically allocates capital among a set of market index ETFs, and their leveraged or inverse counterparts.

Table showing various ETFs with their percentage performance, leveraged counterparts, and status. The table is divided into sections for market ETFs and sector ETFs, with headings in yellow and text in black.

Insights from the FVEr Blog: Frequent commentary about all things FVEr. Click here to read a sample.

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